Shift in German Social Democrats Towards the Left, Marked by Dip in Survey Results
In the political landscape of Germany, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is grappling with a decline in popularity, according to the latest survey conducted on July 7. The party, which currently forms part of the government coalition under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, is polling at around 14%, a loss of two percentage points compared to the February 23 general election.
The SPD's slide in popularity is attributed to its shift further left, a move that has resulted in strong competition from parties like The Greens and the left-wing Die Linke. This trend is particularly evident in the party's internal elections, as seen in the recent contest for the party chairmanship. Lars Klingbeil, a representative of the SPD's centrist wing, received only 65% of the delegates' votes, indicating a division within the party.
On the other hand, Bärbel Bas, a representative of the SPD's left-wing, secured 95% of the votes in the election, suggesting a strong support base for the party's leftward direction. However, this shift may not be beneficial for the SPD, as Hermann Binkert, founder of Insa, suggests that it might be challenging for SPD functionaries to shift the party towards the right.
Binkert further implies that the SPD leadership should consider moving the party towards the voters rather than just focusing on its own members. He suggests that the SPD had a better chance to win in more conservative voter circles and should consider shifting its policies towards the center.
Binkert also predicts that The Greens and Die Linke have a maximum potential of around 20% of the vote and could challenge the SPD for third place. Meanwhile, the main opposition party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), is polling around 24%, around three points up from the general election.
Interestingly, half of the potential SPD voters are currently voting CDU, indicating a significant shift in allegiance. The Conservative Christian Democratic Union party (CDU) is consistently polling around 28%, about the same as the election result.
The SPD's leadership will need to carefully consider these findings as they navigate the party's future direction. The new co-chairwoman, Bärbel Bas, who was elected at the party convention at the end of June 2025, held her first board retreat in early September 2025 in Berlin. The outcome of these discussions could shape the future of the SPD in Germany's political arena.
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