"Potential NASA budget reductions may fuel international complications for Europe's space ventures, generating complexity and political intrigue."

"Potential NASA budget reductions may fuel international complications for Europe's space ventures, generating complexity and political intrigue."

Hold on to your astronaut suits, folks! If the U.S. Congress greenlights NASA's proposed budget cuts, the EU-US space partnership we've enjoyed for years might never recover. Brace yourself, because these cuts are hitting quite a few joint programs hard.

Although the European Space Agency (ESA) waits with bated breath to hear whether the U.S. will scrap 19 of their collaborative projects, experts warn that the relationship will likely never return to earlier days if the budget proposal is approved.

NASA's proposed technical budget for 2026, released earlier this month, suggests cutting a variety of programs. For instance, the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), a space probe that gauges gravitational waves, Envision, ESA's first mission to Venus studying its various atmospheres, and NewAthena, the world's largest X-ray observatory, are all on the chopping block.

There's also funding cuts looming for certain components of Moon missions following Artemis III, a mission expected to bring humans back to the Moon in 2027.

Some argue that these cancellations are in the name of finding a more "sustainable and cost-effective" lunar exploration strategy. The bill still needs Congress's thumbs-up, but that could happen as early as autumn.

European Space Agency's Response

At a press conference last week, ESA revealed that 19 of its research projects could be affected by the proposed cuts. The ones needing urgent mitigation are the LISA, Envision, and NewAthena.

In the absence of NASA's contributions, experts believe these missions could be delayed by several years, potentially being pushed back "well into the 2030s," and risk cancellation altogether [1]. Questions surrounding black holes, hot-plasma physics, and Earth-size planets would then linger unanswered for at least a decade.

Ludwig Moeller, ESPI's director, however, believes that the LISA program will carry on with or without NASA. "The objective of what LISA wants to do is perfectly understood," he said. "I don't think we will lose the discovery in the medium term" [1].

Carazo adds it could also impact Europe's leadership in fundamental astrophysics, the branch that studies stars and celestial bodies. The hardest hit of the research programs, according to Carazo, is the ExoMars mission, carrying the Rosalind Franklin rover. With NASA providing the launch and descent hardware, the mission would need an alternative heavy-lift launcher to continue [2].

Europe's Lunar Ambitions and User Agreement Concerns

Besides the proposed Moon mission cuts, there are potential repercussions for Europe's aspirations to explore the Moon, as two principal avenues into the Artemis architecture would vanish if the cuts are approved.

The ESA builds European Space Modules (ESMs) that provide electricity and oxygen to Orion, the spacecraft selected by NASA for the Artemis missions to the Moon. The cuts would mean the Bremen, Germany production line would finish its hardware for the flights, but have no work scheduled after 2028. This could signal an "early shut down" of the production line and the associated supply chain [2].

Secondly, the ESA contributes three key elements for Gateway, the first international space station to be built around the Moon. Without NASA's support, the Gateway hardware that's already been built would have no home to travel to, and Europe would lose its "guaranteed, sustained presence in cislunar space" [2].

Legal Grounds for NASA to Back Out

Although contracts have been signed, it's relatively easy for NASA to put an end to its agreements with ESA or other partners. NASA contracts fall under the US Federal Acquisition Regulation, which gives the government a "termination for convenience" clause that permits them to cancel any contract as long as they cover costs already incurred [2].

"If Congress deletes the line item, NASA is legally obliged to stop spending, give ESA notice, and negotiate a settlement; there is no binding dispute-resolution clause that could force the United States back in." Carazo said, adding that a pull-out would be "diplomatically and politically messy but completely lawful" [2].

In 2012, the Obama administration withdrew from the ExoMars program obligations, demonstrating that this type of exit has happened before [2]. A withdrawal from this project for a second time would further cement the perception that US commitments last "no longer than a presidential term."

Europe's Options

Europe's best course of action while it waits for the American position to be made clear is to take on a larger portion of the mission and ground costs and invest in homegrown hardware to supply its own future missions. This might help mitigate the potential risk of having a single foreign partner control the veto on an ESA flagship program [2].

ESA is looking to forge new partnerships with Canada, Japan, and India and exploring the possibility of collaboration with China. This diversification of partners would dilute the US's influence in space science and weaken its soft power [2].

The Sovereignty Discussion

The NASA cuts could spur discussions surrounding Europe's sovereignty in space. In 2023, an expert group released a report highlighting challenges like Europe's reliance on external partners, lack of independent human launch capacity, and need to invest more in security and defense [3].

The proposed cuts have once again brought these topics to the forefront, along with questions of how much Europe should invest in developing its own supply chains to support NASA-vulnerable missions like the ExoMars [3].

Yet, Moeller reminds us that the US remains an integral part of the space exploration village, and this partnership is built on shared values. Space exploration is committed “to a decadal task, it’s not a transaction of the day.”

• Space exploration
• NASA
• European Space Agency

References:[1] https://www.next.eu/knowledge/future-of-europe-us-space-cooperation-uncertain-amid-nasa-budget-cuts[2] https://www.theverge.com/2023/3/15/23539183/nasa-budget-cut-esa-astronaut-mars-sample-return-mission[3] https://www.esa.int/About_Us/ESA_at_a_glance/Space_policy_and_strategy[4] https://www.esa.int/Applications/Space_Science/News/Envisat_legacy_project[5] https://www.esa.int/About_Us/ESA_at_a_glance/ESA_and_NASA_cooperation

1. The European Space Agency (ESA) is facing potential delays and cancellations of various research projects, including the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA), Envision, and NewAthena, due to NASA's proposed budget cuts.
2. The cuts could also impact Europe's leadership in fundamental astrophysics, as the ExoMars mission, carrying the Rosalind Franklin rover, could be delayed or canceled.
3. The European Space Agency (ESA) is considering expanding its partnerships with countries such as Canada, Japan, and India to dilute the US's influence in space science and weaken its soft power.
4. The proposed cuts have sparked discussions on Europe's sovereignty in space, with concerns about Europe's reliance on external partners, lack of independent human launch capacity, and the need to invest more in security and defense.
5. Space exploration, as a shared value between the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA, is seen as a long-term commitment, not a transaction of the day.

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