Measuring and Adjusting Surveys about Previous Presidential Election Voting Preferences
In the dynamic world of public opinion polling, a significant shift has taken place over the past quarter century. Historically, most polls did not weight on past (recalled) vote, but this practice has evolved to reduce memory errors and improve the accuracy of polling data.
One panel leading this change is the ATP (American Trends Panel). The ATP allows for asking respondents about their voting behaviour immediately after an election, reducing errors stemming from misremembering. This approach is particularly beneficial as it enables the panel to pair respondents to administrative voter data to determine which of the people surveyed actually turned out to vote.
The ATP's method of weighting on past vote has shown notable effects on certain estimates. For instance, when weighting on past vote, the ATP estimates were 1 point higher for the shares of U.S. adults who have difficulty paying for medical care and difficulty paying for child care.
However, it's important to note that the evolution of polling from primarily a telephone-based endeavour to primarily an internet-based one may improve the effectiveness of past vote weighting. Internet polls, being less likely to cause respondents to worry about social acceptability, make for a more comfortable venue for people to admit voting for the losing candidate or not voting at all.
The ATP surveys have shown that most topline estimates did not change with the past vote adjustment. However, estimates that did change tended to reflect slightly more personal financial hardship or support for Republican positions. This shift was also observed in the NPORS (National Polling Opinion Research Center) surveys, with 32 of the survey's 33 estimates moving by 1 point or less.
Interestingly, the weighting on past vote has a minimal effect on Pew Research Center survey estimates. The reason behind Pew Research Center introducing weighting of surveys related to past elections only in June 2025 remains unclear, as there are no search results explaining this development.
Despite these changes, there are challenges that persist in the field of polling. For example, Republican voters have become less likely to respond to surveys, leading to underrepresentation in polls since 2016. The internet polls, with their panel infrastructure, are helping to address this issue by allowing for adjustments to the partisan balance of the current survey of the same people.
In conclusion, the practice of weighting on past vote in public opinion polls is a significant step towards reducing memory errors and improving the accuracy of polling data. The ATP panel, with its innovative approach, is leading this change, providing valuable insights into the voting behaviour of Americans.
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